Market notes

ArbLense blog

Practical notes on prediction market price differences, scanner workflows, and how to read live route economics before acting.

Shield with a checkmark — Kalshi identity verification guide cover
kalshiguideprediction-markets

How to Use Kalshi: Sign-Up, Verification, First Trade (2026)

As of September 18, 2026, Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange for event contracts paying $1 for the winning outcome and $0 for the losing outcome. If you searched how to bet on Kalshi, the process is account creation, identity verification, depositing dollars, and buying YES or NO through an order book.

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Sign-in arrow entering a circle — Polymarket onboarding guide cover
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How to Use Polymarket: Sign-Up, Deposit, First Trade (2026)

Polymarket is a peer-to-peer prediction market where YES and NO shares trade between $0 and $1 and winning shares redeem for $1. To trade, create an account, complete verification on the US product or connect a wallet on the global product, deposit funds, and place an order after reading the contract rules.

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How to read live routesOpen scannerHow it worksPlans
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